Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Georgios Kavetsos: Should I wish on a stadium? Measuring the average effect on the treated. In: Rodrigues, P. und J. Garcia, (Hrsg.), The econometrics of sport. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2012.
- Abstract coming soon -
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. und Georgios Kavetsos: Outlook, progress and challenges of stadium evaluation. In: Maennig, Wolfgang und Andrew Zimbalist, (Hrsg.), International handbook on the economics of mega sporting events. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2012, pp. 279-294. ISBN 9780857930262
- Abstract coming soon -
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Rail Mega-Projects in the Realm of Inter- and Intra-City Accessibility: Evidence and Outlooks for Berlin. (Built Environment, forthcoming)
In contrast to local urban transport infrastructure, mainline mega-projects, such as the Berlin Hauptbahnhof, have a limited impact on the local economy and real-estate markets, in contrast to local urban transport infrastructure. This has two implications for planners. First, this may justify a relatively peripheral location of the station, in order to make available the spaces occupied by facilities and feeder lines. Often, such facilities occupy much of a city’s most productive space. Relocation may be a feasible alternative if expensive tunnel constructions are not financially viable. Second, the availability of access to main lines alone is not likely to induce considerable stimulus within a neighborhood. Urban development authorities should develop strategies that go beyond an efficient transportation concept.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Nicolai Wendland: Fifty Years of Urban Accessibility: The Impact of the Urban Railway Network on the Land Gradient in Berlin 1890–1936. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2011, 41(2), pp. 77-88.
Direct access to central business districts (CBD) by means of rapid transport networks strengthens urban peripheries. Such is the conclusion of a long-term study of Berlin during the industrial revolution. The evolution of the rapid transit network, and the subsequent changes in travel times to the CBD, explains almost three quarters of the overall trend in decentralization. Thereby, classic urban economic theories are confirmed by a dynamic study and the path paved for application in urban development.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Blessing or curse? Appreciation, Amenities and Resistance to Urban Renewal. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2011, 41(1), pp. 32-45.
Local cultural establishments significantly shape the character of a “Kiez” (Engl. neighborhood), which is difficult to grasp in a material sense. Possible displacement of these establishments, resulting from urban revaluation strategies, is often perceived as a threat by local residents.
An investigation of the 2008 referendum held in opposition to “Mediaspree”, a major urban development project in Berlin, found that fears regarding such displacement can even surpass the perceived threat of increased rents.
Furthermore, a high degree of localized resistance around the project area, conditional on socio-demographic characteristics (with opposition mainly from young adults and politically-interested individuals) was observed. Evidence of income effects, which would be expected if the affordability of living space was a major concern, was not present. These findings can be interpreted as evidence of the perceived value of cultural amenities and intangible neighborhood characteristics.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intra-city Access to Inter-city Rail Connections? German Economic Review, 2011, 12(3), pp. 312-335.
Still, in many cities, large facilities and track beds of central stations and feeder lines occupy many of the most productive sites. Costly construction projects (e.g. bury tracks underground), however, are not always necessary in order to utilize the potentials. This study shows that relocation to peripheral locations of lesser density can be economically efficient due to limited utility and productivity effects of long-distance connections at local level.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: If Alonso Was Right: Modelling Accessibility and Explaining the Residential Land Gradient; Journal of Regional Science, 2011, 51 (2), pp. 318-338.
Access to employment opportunities is a major determinant of land values in urban areas. With a new empirical approach the effective access to economic centers can be assessed in account of positive (fast accessability) and negative (crash risk or crime) external factors.Taking into account such structural and other features of the environment, the effect persists.
Thus the importance of accessibility in the urban context is shown to be more significant than suggested by conventional evidence. With these methods urban development can be directed more precisely along scheduled transport infrastructures.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Review for European Court of Auditors. Special Report. 2010 Review session. Improving Transport performance on Trans-European Rail Axes: Have EU Rail Infrastructure Investments been effective?, 2010.
Commissioned by the European Court of Auditors, the Special Report Nr.8/2010 „Improving transport performance on trans-European rail axes: Have EU rail Infrastructure Investments been effective?” has been reviewed. Central to the assessment are the methodological improvements of the evaluation of economic initiatives triggered by high-speed rail connections.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Arne Feddersen: Geography of a Sports Metropolis. Région et Développement, 2010, 31, pp. 11-36.
Despite demand potential, central areas are found to be relatively underserved with sports infrastructure as compared to peripheral areas, where opportunity cost (price of land) is lower. This study analyzes the sports infrastructure of Hamburg, Germany, from the residents’ perspective and reveals that urban planning has the ability to counteract these drawbacks.
Public sports fields and centers tend to be concentrated in areas of relatively low income. This presence corresponds to a social infrastructure character, often emphasized by local authorities. In contrast, there is a clear tendency for tennis facilities to be located in areas of high purchasing power. Urban planners should focus on providing sports opportunities in areas with high proportions of foreigners, as they are particularly underserved.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Architektur, Ökonomie – Architekturökonomie. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2010, 11(4), pp. 340-355 .
Architecture has an (welfare) economic dimension. Typically, investments in the built environment will only be undertaken on the condition that incentives are present. Architectural landmark projects (e.g. Elbphilharmonie in Hamburg) that potentially initiate (re)development of urban quarters and are therefore often recipients of public funding. Such projects may serve as examples to motivate investment in other projects. A notable alternative to regulatory and monetary incentives are honors and awards. Although these are established as incentives for fostering architectural innovation, their potential is far from being exhausted at a local scale.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Impact of Non-smoking Ordinances on Hospitality Revenues: The Case of Germany. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2010, 230(5), pp. 506-521.
A loss in revenue of bars and restaurants was expected to accompany the introduction of smoking bans in Germany in 2007 – 2008. No compelling evidence for such an impact was found. Consumption patterns have either not changed or reduced consumption by smokers has been compensated by increased spending of non-smokers. German legislators implemented the smoking bans, in part, to reduce healthcare costs. This study concludes that this has not been at the expense of businesses in the hospitality sector, as was expected.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Stadium Architecture and Urban Development from the Perspective of Urban Economics. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2010, 34(3), pp. 629-46.
New stadia are intended to accelerate urban (re)development when they serve as visiting cards for their hometowns. Sophisticated stadium architecture is recommended as a means of either supporting urban regeneration or boosting the image and expenditure effects produced by professional sports.
Especially when public funds are committed, planning authorities should ensure that stadia are not only designed with respect to profit maximization for the respective sports team: Instead planners should ensure that an integrated approach is pursued that minimizes proximity cost by providing sufficient parking facilities and avoiding long access paths leading through residential areas.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Substitutability and Complementarity of Urban Amenities: External Effects of Built Heritage in Berlin. Real Estate Economics, 2010, 38(2), pp. 285-323.
Historical landmarks are found to have positive external effects on their surroundings. This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on transaction prices of flats in Berlin. While our findings suggest that designated landmarks do not sell at a premium or discount, landmarks are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices within a distance of approximately 600m. Planners may contribute to improving the attractiveness of urban areas or cities in their entirety by means of preservation policies, although architectural externalities are not limited to historic buildings. In the long run, a heritage preservation policy may even have a direct economic impact due to the attraction of tourists, employees and firms.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Felix Schrayvogel: Wahrgenommene Kosten und Nutzen innerstädtischer Flughäfen – Ergebnisse einer räumlich-empirischen Untersuchung des Volksentscheids zum Flughafen Berlin Tempelhof. Zeitschrift für amtliche Statistik Berlin Brandenburg, 2010, 2.
Berliners were dichotomized in terms of attitudes to the closure of Tempelhof Airport. The mean approval rate for its continued operation was approximately twice as high in former West Berlin than in former East Berlin, indicating a special emotional attachment. The only East Berlin area where voters supp Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Felix Schrayvogel: Wahrgenommene Kosten und Nutzen innerstädtischer Flughäfen – Ergebnisse einer räumlich-empirischen Untersuchung des Volksentscheids zum Flughafen Berlin Tempelhof –Zeitschrift für amtliche Statistik Berlin Brandenburg, 2/2010.
orted the Referendum by a clear majority was within the Schönefeld Airport noise protection zone – probably with the intention to avoid the shifting of the air traffic from Tempelhof to Schönefeld.
Furthermore, recommendations given by political parties in the run-up to the referendum can be found within the electoral behavior of their supporters. In areas with a high percentage of votes for the CDU and the FDP a significantly higher support for on-going use of the THF was found, in line with these parties’ policies. A lower support was found in areas with a greater following for the SPD, Die Linke and Die Grünen, who all campaigned against the airport.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Erwartete externe Effekte und Wahlverhalten: Das Beispiel der Münchner Allianz-Arena. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2010, 230(1), pp. 2-26.
New sports stadia at the local level are opposed by residents in public referenda because of the anticipated negative proximity effects. This study investigates the stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena. The perceived cost-benefit-ratio varies by voters´ socioeconomic structure and the proximity. Residents within close proximity to the projected site are strongly opposed the project because of expected high costs of having this in their neighborhood. This finding contradicts the existing evidence on stadium impact from the United States. The referendum was opposed in voting precincts with high proportions of 25-35 year olds and in more wealthy districts, while high numbers of yes-votes were achieved in boroughs where males, the unemployed and pensioners were represented in greater proportions among the voters.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Impact of Sports Arenas on Land Values: Evidence from Berlin. The Annals of Regional Science, 2010, (44), pp. 205-227.
The model assesses the impact of multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg that were intended to improve the attractiveness of their formerly deprived neighborhoods. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of sports venues on land values based on US evidence. Sports arenas have significantly positive impacts within a radius of about 3,000m. The patterns of impact vary, indicating that the effective impact depends on how planning authorities address potential countervailing negative externalities. While the presence of the Velodrom has a significantly positive impact on land values, decreasing with distance, Max-Schmeling-Arena has more ambiguous effects. Besides potential problems caused by fans, traffic congestion following unrealistic assumptions about visitors’ travel behaviors prove to be an obvious explanation. Congestion counteracts the hypothesized positive effects on land values when, for example, car-owning households are subsequently discouraged to move to the area.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Stadtökonomische Impulse durch Sport: Möglichkeiten und Grenzen. 13. Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises Sportökonomie e. V. „Sport. Stadt. Ökonomik.“, 8. bis 9. Mai 2009, Berlin.
The various effects of urban and regional sports were discussed at the 13th annual conference of the Arbeitskreis Sportökonomie e.V. (Working Group on Sport Economics as a registered association). The most important finding is of indirect, small scale effects of sports and sport infrastructure on urban and regional development.
Big events like Olympic Games 2002 in Salt Lake City did not release a statistically measurable economic impetus. However, the example of the Munich Allianz Arena shows that there can certainly be significant effects within the immediate vicinity of big sport stadia. In addition, speakers were able to show how the application of scientifically approved empirical methods on a poll of football enthusiasts can be used to make specific management recommendations.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.: Built Evironment as Determinant for Attractiveness of Location (Gebaute Umwelt als Determinante fuer Lageattraktivitaet: Der Einfluss gebietstypischer Bebauungsstruktur auf Grundstückspreise in Berlin), DisP – The Planning Review, 2009, 179(4), 46-56.
Both conservative and modern urban redevelopments are demonstrated to be successful according to economic criteria. It seems to be the quality of architectural and urban design rather than architectural and planning dogma which determines a neighborhood’s attractiveness and value. Architectural premiums of up to 17.6% are found for the Berlin Hansaviertel, constituted by 1950s landmark buildings, exceeding respective premiums for all other building structures, including the mid- to late-industrial era (circa 1850-1914) developments. Urban planning interventions which contribute to the internalization of price effects by means of grants, subsidies and contributions can thus be justified.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Wolfgang Maennig: Arenas, Arena Architecture and the Impact on Location Desirability. The Case of “Olympic Arenas” in Prenzlauer Berg. Urban Studies, 2009, 46(7), pp. 1343-1362.
The authors give evidence for initiating processes of urban redevelopment by means of building new sport stadia in economically deprived neighborhoods. They investigate multifunctional arenas in Berlin Prenzlauer Berg: the Max-Schmeling-Arena, the Velodrom, and the swimming arena. They find strong effects for the Velodrom while the Max-Schmeling-Arena’s construction is found to have impacts limited to a short period after inauguration with no significant impact on the long-term growth trend. However, this is not necessarily attributable to noisy fans, or to an inadequate or unappealing appearance. Indeed, the positive effects on location desirability appear to have been neutralized by congestion problems, which could have been avoided by providing an underground car-park. Furthermore the authors recommend that new sport stadia should be built with an emphasis on the architectural quality and urban design because this can increase the location desirability and can reconcile skepticism among the neighbors.
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M./Nicolai Wendland: Looming Stations: Valuing Transport Innovations in Historical Context. Economic Letters, 2009, 105(1), pp. 97-99.
With a better provision of public transport services the productivity in urban areas could be considerable increased. The authors investigate the impact of transport innovations on the productivity of urban locations in pre-WW II Berlin, Germany. The results indicate an increase in commercial land value of up to 2.0-2.5% per 100m reduction in distance to an urban railway station which is a considerably larger impact than what is typically found for residential land.
G. Ahlfeldt, N. Wendland (2008): The centrality was already there! The importance of public rail traffic for the creation of Berlin City West; (Die Zentralitaet war schon da! Die Bedeutung des öffentlichen Schienennahverkehrs für die Entstehung der Berliner City West), DISP – THE PLANNING REVIEW, 174.
An important result of this study of Berlin´s urban structure is that congestion of main transport routes can be alleviated by means of directed planning. Planning authorities can counteract increasing congestion costs and raised demand for energy.
In order to achieve this, planners should successfully support the transformation of cities from a monocentric to a polycentric structure by providing alternative sites with large market access based on an excellent transport infrastructure. Alternative areas should be characterized by a balanced relation between residents and working population as well as by a good accessibility and large market potential. Directed planning is intended to control the land use and can define the structure of the residential spaces but must at be accompanied by infrastructural measures that increase the economic attractiveness of central areas.
Ahlfeldt, G. M./W. Maennig/M. Ölschläger: Support for and Resistance against large Stadia: The role of Lifestyle and other Socio-economic Factors. In: W. Maennig/A. Zimbalist, International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, Edward Elgar, 2012.
Lifestyle preferences, values and attitudes have a potential impact on individual behavior and market outcomes. The authors use the example of the Munich Allianz-Arena to demonstrate that consumer preferences vary among individuals with differing lifestyles. Meanwhile, public support of large-scale projects, such as stadia and railway stations, is becoming more important. The feasibility of such projects depends not only on regional and local costs and benefits, but also on the lifestyle-specific composition of the population in the surrounding area.
Lifestyle characteristics and preferences of local residents should be taken into account a priori in future large scale projects so that all interest groups can live with the result.